Weekly #24: The Li Jiaqi aftermath 🌋, National liquor Moutai halts collabs 🖐, Forecasting holiday tourism spending🔮| Following the yuan

Drawing inspiration from the often misguided forecasts of Michael Burry and Cathie Wood, I'm inclined to believe that the forthcoming tourism spending (esp. in global travel), will disappoint.

I’m going to start today’s newsletter with a rant, or you could see it as constructive feedback.

As I’ve been broadcasting (for attention) in recent weeks — I’m still recovering from pneumonia, I initially attributed the reason to me not resting enough. But after listening to the latest episode of Bumingbai (translated to “I don’t understand”) podcast, hosted by New York Times Tech Columnist YUAN Li, I suspect part of the reason may have something to do with the problematic commission system of China’s medical industry.

When asked whether China’s recent medical crackdown means that doctors are wary of prescribing medicines, the doctor said, “Traditional Chinese medicine and supplements have more profit…patients won’t die from it, there are no side effects, and you can earn more.” That was the main reason why he did that when he was a young doctor, he hasn’t prescribed TCM for over 10 years because he doesn’t believe in it.

I’m reminded that I was a bit surprised when I had a common cold a month ago; the doctor only prescribed me TCM but didn’t probe further. I took it for a week, did not fully recover, but I chose to ignore the minor symptoms. That developed into high fever and pneumonia. Had it been the modern medicine that I usually get, I would’ve recovered in 3 days. I’d like to give the doctor the benefit of the doubt, but after Bumingbai, I started questioning her incentive. Perhaps it’s because she believes in TCM, perhaps it’s because she’s a nationalist or, more realistically, she gets more commission from prescribing it.

If this is the case, I think the crackdown and the 14th five year plan for TCM development will affect not only the medical industry but every other industry as well. TCM, from how I see it, is not used to treat symptoms but to improve underlying issues. If doctors are prescribing TCM for minor illnesses that would normally be resolved quickly with modern medicine, then that’s productivity lost for these patients, their companies and their industries. 😤

1. The Li Jiaqi aftermath 🌋

What happened: Every time Li Jiaqi makes a mistake, traffic shifts to other livestreamers and away from Alibaba’s Taobao Live.

Last June, when he was temporarily banned after a tank-shaped ice cream cake appeared in his livestream before the Tiananmen anniversary, it helped revive New Oriental Education & Tech Group (NYSE: EDU) to survive after its pivot to a livestream company from China’s education crackdown. This time, the traffic is directed to Chinese brands including shampoo producer Bee & Flower 蜂花, MSG brand Lotus 莲花, and Power28 活力28, a 70-year-old state-owned detergent brand.