[1/2] 10 forecasts for China’s consumer market in 2025, macro environment edition | Following the Yuan

Russian goods and lookalikes are leveraging their image as China’s ally to appeal to a patriotic audience.

China’s consumer market is grappling with post-Covid syndrome two years after it lifted its stringent pandemic-related restrictions.

While the current market trends and indicators cannot be entirely attributed to Covid-19, the information and travel blockades during the past years, coupled with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and lasting economic woes fueled by the real estate crisis, are still affecting Chinese consumers. And they will continue to determine the behaviors of different social groups on various levels. 

Stepping into 2025, Western brands facing the mass market may feel a heightened cultural shock, exemplified by recent online and offline push backs against Christmas, which is increasingly being viewed as a Western influence, and muted New Year’s celebrations to potentially avoid mass gatherings and emotional outbursts like the vigil-turned-White Paper Protest. Lately, political undercurrents are also increasingly influencing the consumer market, and while they may not be felt uniformly across China, it’s important to stay alert. 

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Here are the 10 forecasts for China’s consumer market in 2025:

Macro environment

1. Russia influence continues to rise in China

2. HK - mainland China cultural integration deepens

3. China’s ‘good cop, bad cop’ strategy on Taiwan amplifies

Consumers

1. Lower-tier brands win big-city wallets

2. Endless price wars backfire

3. Diffusion brands make a comeback

4. Marketing messages become more unfiltered

Conflicting forces in information dissemination

1. Anxiety around pet ownership reaches new heights

2. Gender issue polarize public opinion

3. Clampdown on Xiaohongshu content